By Alexey Stukalo
If an attack in the east of Ukraine begins, it will be before the cold weather, the former president of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili stated in his comment for the "GORDON" .
"I think that Putin considers all options. On the one hand, he concluded a gas agreement with Europe and Ukraine. Thereby he told Europe, "Do not worry! Even if I attack Ukraine, you will have gas." At the same time he sent bombers over the Atlantic Ocean, thus signaling to Europe and America that Russia is capable of nuclear bombing if they interfere with his affairs," the politician considers.
According to Saakashvili, Putin’s speech at the Valdai forum was very similar to Hitler's message to Chamberlain before World War II.
"There are a lot of points of support in this speech. He declared that all the post-Soviet area is his taiga and he is the tiger who can be there. And if others do not want him to enter their wood, they should not bother him in his taiga. All this looks like preparation for a full-scale attack. It is hard to say if he will attack now or later," he reported.
The politician considers that the Ukrainian government should be especially vigilant now.
"If Putin is to give a surprise, it should be expected in the direction of the South and the Crimea via Mariupol, Kherson and other regions before cold weather and snowfalls. If the danger is over during this period, I think that he will fire positions and maintain tension for the rest of the time, but the probability of a large-scale attack decreases in the winter when it is cold," Saakashvili said.
"The Novorossiya project is not abandoned or wound up. Putin has two projects: firstly, these are separatist regions of Ukraine that will never close of their own accord. He has never closed any separatist areas in the territory of the former Soviet Union. Secondly, it is complete destruction of the Ukrainian statehood. It is a matter of life and death for him. He understands that if Ukraine survives as an integral state and as a state in general, it will mean his personal fiasco," the ex-president declared.
Saakashvili expressed an opinion that Putin has no chances for the capitulation of Ukraine given the situation after elections in Ukraine.
"And it is the only arrangement he relies on. Therefore, I think there should not be expected any diplomatic breakthroughs from Putin in the nearest future. Now you should be very vigilant, create the Ukrainian government as soon as possible, and implement reforms, first of all anti-corruption ones," the politician stressed.