by Natalia DVALY
A native of Ukraine, a former officer of the First Chief Directorate of the KGB, a graduate of the Andropov Institute of KGB, and now the American financial analyst Yuri Shvets in the 1980s, at the height of the "cold war" was a scout in the United States. Was working as an undercover reporter in Telegraph Agency of the Soviet Union (TASS) to collect and analyze information about possible sudden nuclear attack on the Soviet Union by America.
In 1990, Shvets retired from service and three years later he emigrated to the United States, where published a book, "The Washington residency: My Life As A KGB spy in America." The last 18 years, the former spy works as a head of US firm on gathering information and assessing the commercial risks of the companies planning to conduct multi-million dollar business on the territory of the former Soviet Union and around the world, including Latin America, Africa and Asia.
Yuri Shvets – one of the key witnesses at the ongoing London public hearing into the murder of former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko. It was Shvets who helped Litvinenko to collect and analyze the file on Viktor Ivanov – ally of Vladimir Putin, Director of Federal Drug Control Service of Russia. The dossier was compiled with information on connections of Putin and Ivanov with Tambov organized crime group that in the 1990s was engaged in drug trafficking and money laundering of one of the largest Colombian drug cartels. According to the materials of the British investigation, exactly Shvets and Litvinenko crumbed the deal of one of Europe's leading corporations with Russia, from which Ivanov allegedly planned to personally get a huge "cut".
In addition, Yuri Shvets as an expert was involved in the immigration case of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko, and in 2002-2005 transcribed and analyzed "Melnichenko tape" – records of wiretaps of former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma in the investigation into the murder of journalist Georgy Gongadze. Shvets published the transcript on the Ukrainian Internet resources under the pseudonym Petr Liutyy.
In an exclusive interview with "GORDON" Yuri Shvets said that a year ago, before the active hostilities in the Donbass, he was trying to help "eliminate armed separatists" and what the Ukrainian leadership responded him; explained why he considers Putin a man with the abilities of "below average" and "What two pieces of paper would be enough to sign" for US President Barack Obama to make Russia's economy collapse.
– Is it true that you studied with Vladimir Putin in the Andropov Institute of the KGB?
– This information appeared in May 2001 on the site of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, the article stated that I am a traitor because I broadcast exposing things about the KGB, as indicated in brackets: "In the early '80s Yuri Shvets was a groupmate of Vladimir Putin in the academy of the KGB. "
– Why did the Russian special services needed to expose you in 2001?
– I have no idea. I had nothing to do with the post-Soviet Russia, I have never been a citizen of the Russian Federation, I even did not have a Russian passport. In 1993, I went to the US, and three years later published a book of memoirs, "The Washington residency: My Life As A KGB Spy in America." Hardly memoirs appeared in Russia began howling, saying that Shvets has issued all the KGB secrets. What secrets where they talking about if the Soviet Union had collapsed a long time ago, the KGB at that time did not exist, and the chairman of the KGB, Vladimir Kryuchkov had already served in prison for an attempted coup in August 1991.
– Maybe the howl went up because you know too much about the past of Putin as an intelligence officer?
– Putin has never worked in intelligence.
– But the Russian president's official biography states that he served as a counter-intelligence officer in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), and then - in the German Democratic Republic (GDR).
– After graduating from the Andropov Institute Putin was sent to the territorial authorities - the KGB in Leningrad and Leningrad region. This is extremely important for the understanding of "Who is mister Putin?" and what is happening with Russia.
To enter the Red Banner Andropov Institute of the KGB was extremely difficult. But if you managed to do that, you were sent with a probability of 99.9% to Intelligence service (with the exception of Republican comrades of the Ukrainian SSR and other republics - they were sent to Moscow for training of national personnel, and then were often sent back). But Leningrad - is another story. My groupmates from the city were then in the First Chief Directorate of the KGB, responsible for foreign intelligence, but Putin - no.
– Despite the common myth not only James Bond could get to the Intelligence office. The bulk of the staff of the First Chief Directorate of the KGB - people with sufficient average analytical skills and adequate psychological characteristics. Keyword - "average". The fact that Putin was not sent to the Intelligence means that in the comparison to his co-workers his abilities were below average.
During his studies in Moscow, Putin as a nonresident was living in a closed facility, which was located outside the city, deep in the forest and was surrounded by a high fence. The future president of the Russian Federation was there 24 hours a day, seven days a week for almost a year. The Institute of Andropov not only taught, but also studied the students to understand were they suitable for use in intelligence or not? Student Putin was being studied for a year in the way no laboratory can do in the world, and as a result, was sent to work in the Leningrad region.
– But in the Soviet Union, Leningrad was the second largest city after Moscow. Why are you so scornful about the service in the northern capital?
– The state security office of Leningrad and Leningrad region was typical provincial office of the KGB, which was no different from the KGB in, let’s say, Zhmerinka or Berdichev. The idea is that employees should have been catching foreign spies and recruit their own, but in fact they were not doing anything like that, because in the world there were not as many spies, as in the USSR regional "councils" of the KGB. So in Leningrad spy Putin was engaged in different crap: was sorting out students’ greivances onto professors, professors’ greivances onto rectors and so on.
– However, in 1985, the future president of the Russian Federation was sent to work in East Germany, where, according to his official biography, "he served in the territorial intelligence in Dresden under the cover of the post of Director of House of Friendship of the USSR - GDR".
– There was no KGB residency in the GDR and, according to the order, the KGB did not conduct intelligence activities in the territory of the socialist countries, especially in East Germany, which was one of the most friendly to the Soviet regime. East Germans had their own great human intelligence, it was important not to interfere, they did all the work and reported to Moscow.
Residency – is a conspiratorial intelligence unit of one state on the territory of another. The was nothing like this in the GDR; there was the official representative of the KGB in Berlin, Dresden and, as I remember, in one more city. Why? During Soviet times, traveling abroad was a great event for any Soviet citizen. And the KGB arranged for employees of territorial divisions such "celebration of life". KGB officers were sent to several years in East Germany, where they were wasting their lives and returned home with a German camera with a lens "Carl Zeiss" and with table set "Madonna". These two standard things were almost the only result of his "espionage" in the GDR.
The same did Putin. One of his duties as a director of the House of Friendship of the USSR and the GDR was to set the table for high officials from Moscow, to feed them, to make them drunk, to shop at local stores and to load insensitive bodies of those officials on the plane and sent back to Moscow. That's the whole intelligence work of Putin in East Germany.
– You insist that Putin during service in the KGB had below average abilities, and that he was never engaged in intelligence ...
– I do not insist. It is his real, not fake web professional biography. The fact that Putin after Andropov Institute was sent back to Leningrad - a definite diagnosis. During his studies, he was being studied by dozens of teachers and professional instructors, each of whom at the end of study at the graduation wrote the appropriate response. I've seen some of these characteristics – it was great analysis, stunning deep descriptions of the intellectual and psychological abilities of the object. By the way, you know how much about the person says his nickname? In the KGB Putin was called Stub, then – Pale Moth, and now – Botox.
– In Ukraine, we have also the nickname for the Russian president ...
– (Laughs). I know Putin – la-la-la! Great Russian generals who fought in the Crimea with the Ottoman Empire, received from the Empress Catherine the beautiful adjuncts to surnames: Suvorov-Rymniksny, Rumyantsev-Zadunaysky, Potemkin-Tauvrichesky. And Putin for his last year Crimean operation received eloquent adjunct H..lo.
I talked with people who knew Putin long before his presidency. All noted that in addition to quite a mediocre intellectual abilities he differed by extraordinary complexes. Putin was frustrated with his own small stature, the inferiority complex has been printed in all his figure and face. That’s why he went to the KGB and took up judo, to somehow compensate for an inferiority complex. I do not know what about sports, but in the KGB his career wasn’t successful.
– However, in contrast to the more talented groupmates, it was Putin who for almost 15 years ruled one of the biggest countries in the world...
– Yes, that’s because there is established tradition of the Soviet, and now Russian political system when crap floats on the surface. Why in 1953, Nikita Khrushchev was appointed First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party? He was an absolute schmuck; buffoon under Stalin. But he was appointed as a puppet, behind which the serious people stood.
Putin is the same story. He was chosen as an obedient puppet, which at the head of the Russian Federation was to ensure the safety and loot of those whom he replaced. I spoke with Boris Berezovsky, who has played a significant role in that Putin became president. Boris said: "Give me one channel, and I will make a chair the next president of Russia." That's the whole answer.
– Is it possible in today's Russia a coup that will remove Putin from power?
– Yes, it is more likely because the Kremlin's "elite" business suffers of Western sanctions. They do not need any Crimea or Donbass. Now the main strategic conflict in Russia - it is a conflict between the desire of Putin to sit in his place to the grave, and the objective needs of the country in the normal development. If Putinholds on top till the end, Russia will either collapse or become a third-rate country like North Korea or Mongolia.
– Don’t you think that the Kremlin elite are afraid of Russian national revolt more than Western sanctions, and therefore do not dare to the coup?
– This is a deep-rooted disease throughout Moscow "elite." On the eve of the collapse of the USSR every week another party worker came from the Central Committee to the KGB, saying that you guys should help us to remain in power, or a senseless and merciless revolt will start, and then both you and we will be hung on lampposts,as it was in Budapest during the anti-Soviet uprising in 1956.
– What are the chances that Putin will push the nuclear button?
– Zero. I was professionally engaged in military and strategic issues in the midst of the "cold war" between the Soviet Union and the United States, when the danger of nuclear war really existed. What does it mean to start a nuclear war? We must strike first, the purpose of which - to destroy the maximum number of the enemy land-based missiles units, and when in response the remaining missiles flies, they need to bring down their own means of missile defense. The Soviet Union has never been a potential nuclear first strike, Russia - even more so.
– According to official figures for September 2013 in the arsenal of the Russian Federation was about three thousand nuclear warheads; to unofficial sources the number was over 50 thousand.
– Structure of the Russian land-based missiles is that about half of warheads mounted on missiles SS-18, or "Satan" made in Design Bureau "Southern" in Dnepropetrovsk. It is the brainchild of 60-ies of the last century, there about 10 warheads on each missile, but they do not have the required accuracy. Missiles designed to strike the area rather than on precise targets. That is the Russian nuclear missiles can destroy the whole New York, San Francisco or other major US cities, but not destroy American missiles in mine installations. But will have guaranteed retaliation that will sweep away the whole Russia.
A critical factor in the decision "to apply a nuclear strike or not?" - Is how well your missile hits the target. Soviet, and now Russian missiles differ with poor accuracy. Moreover, the real accuracy of hitting no one knows, because a huge impact on the trajectory of the rocket have atmospheric features of the area on which it should be the goal. It's one thing to test a missile that flies from the East Kamchatka polygon on a particular corridor with the known atmospheric features. But if a nuclear attack is applied, the rocket will fly along the shortest path, that is, over the North Pole, and where they end up aerial - generally no one knows, because there have been no such tests.
Even if Putin finally goes crazy and decides to press the nuclear button, comrades will quickly correct him and explain everything to him. President of the Russian Federation in general understands a little in such things. In the documentary "Crimea. The path to the Motherland" Putin boasted as he "scared" US destroyer in the Black Sea: they say, we have developed a set of coastal defense and opened it for the satellites to the Americans to see it, and get scared ... But for some reason no one has explained to Putin a tinyl detail: the Russian firing range complex is 250 km and a range of cruise missiles from a US destroyer - 2.5 thousand (!) km. If serious war begins, the complexes that Russian leader placed in the Crimea will be demolished by the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean Sea, even without going into the Black Sea.
In addition to the technical side of the issue, there are psychological. Do you seriously think that a person who annually disappears from the public space for 7-10 days to make a facelift and pump himself with Botox is able to unleash a nuclear war? Because of retaliation botox will be melted from fear.
– You're just jealous of the fact that the President of the Russian Federation with every year has fewer and fewer wrinkles.
– To press the nuclear button, you have to be obsessed with the idea of manic and Putin is a slave only of two quite earthly desires: to prolong his life and remain in power forever. Have you noticed an important detail at a meeting in Minsk?
– During 17 hours of talks in Minsk in February 2015 there were many important details. Which one exactly are you talking about?
– Start of negotiations, Merkel, Hollande, Putin and Poroshenko enter the hall. Lukashenko himself guides everyone to the seats. Suddenly Russian leader jumps to the president of Belarus and pulls a particular chair. There is confusion. Do you know why? Because the height of the chair - a key factor in the current foreign policy of the Russian Federation. The chair should be high, so that Putin would not look short. Simultaneously, the chair should not be too high to stem the Russian president not dangling in the air. Preparation of the chair for Putin – the most important task before each of his public appearances, this chair is prepared in advance. And now Lukashenko unknowingly offers it to someone else! He almost wrecked Minsk negotiations. And you say "press the red button." Come on!..
– If nuclear blackmail is a bluff, why the West is so sluggish in responding to Russia's military aggression in Ukraine?
– The current confrontation between Washington and Moscow's relationship reminds US-USSR in the late 1970s. America was then headed by the liberal and soft Jimmy Carter, who was trying to live in harmony with everyone. Rather than take advantage of this and improve relations with the United States, the Soviet Union launched a major impact - nosed in Afghanistan, aimed SS-20 missile at Europe. As a result, after Carter in 1981 tough Ronald Reagan became president, who had decided to do away with the USSR pranks. He inflated military spending. In response, the Soviet generals began to convince the Political Bureau and the General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee, saying that the Americans are preparing a first strike on the Soviet Union. In fact, Reagan did not plan it.
– Why do you say he didn’t plan it, if it was during the Reagan presidency when "cold war" between the United States and the Soviet Union reached the peak?
– In April 1985 I was sent as a TASS correspondent to Washington. Journalism was undercover, I came with the job "not to miss the US preparing for a surprise nuclear strike on the Soviet Union." The same job got all my colleagues in the political intelligence. It took me three months to realize that the task – is nonsense.
At first I even thought that maybe I did not understand something. I referred to my colleagues, but they all agreed with me. Also analysts of the Main Intelligence Directorate were of the same thought. But everyone reported to Moscow that goddamn Pentagon was preparing a preventive strike against the Soviet Union.
– Why did the Soviet foreign intelligence officers lied to the center?
– There was constant covert struggle in the Politburo that ruled the state. In the late 1970s, the Defense Ministry and the KGB entered into an agreement and come up with a non-existent threat of sudden nuclear attack by the United States.
– To scare other Politburo members, most of which consisted of a 80-year-old marazmatics. The threat, even not existing, of sudden missile attack reinforced the importance and significance of the Defense Ministry and the KGB. Representatives of law enforcement agencies have begun to receive more money from the budget, awards, stars, stripes. The Soviet intelligence officers were required to provide information on the preparation of a missile attack by the United States. If you reported that there was no threat, you were immediately withdrown back to the Soviet Union as insufficiently trained staff.
As a result, in the Soviet Union there were two parallel realities: one fictional, which developed in the mind of management on the basis of those reports, which were made in response to the fake job, the other - the real life in the country and abroad. At some point between the two realities emerged abyss: the heads were busy with the virtual threats, and the state's economy at the ame time was disintegrating, rotting from within the country and in 1991 broke up. Exactly the same thing is happening in Russia. Like the Soviet Union, it’s being ruined by security forces in power.
– Give me the names of generals, whose collusion, in your opinion, has led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
– It all started with KGB Chairman Yuri Andropov and Defense Minister Dmitri Ustinov. Their initiative has picked up one of the closest associates of Andropov, my immediate boss (he then headed the Soviet foreign intelligence), Vladimir Kryuchkov. All the defense ministers of the Soviet Union, until Dmitri Yazov, also participated in this.
By the way, just because Kryuchkov successfully frightened Politburo with American missiles, he became chairman of the KGB, was General of the Army. After that, he completely lost his mind and went to the August 1991 coup, after which the Soviet Union collapsed.
– Don’t you exaggerate the role of the Soviet generals? Eventually, Reagan drew the Union in the arms race and collapsed the world price of oil, which ultimately undermined the Soviet economy.
– The question: "Is it true that America has entered into an agreement with Saudi Arabia to bring down world oil prices?" is very debatable. Russians also shout that the US agreed with Saudi Arabia. I asses the truth of this statement as 50 to 50.
Reagan really dragged the Soviet Union into an arms race, but the Soviet generals with pleasure and quite mindlessly grabbed it, not realizing that it would ruin the economy. The Defense Ministry and the KGB set the task for Politburo to answer the US one-to-one: if the Americans deploy a missile - so we must, if they deploy a submarine - so do we. No one actually thought about how the military competition with the United States would affect the economy in the Soviet Union. As a result, everything collapsed. Absolutely similar events are now taking place in Russia: the security forces generate fake external threats, forcing the media and their own intelligence to duplicate them, and then they themselves believe in them.
Want a grand story that few people remember? It is about the logic of the existence of the USSR and Russia. In the second half of the 1970s in the Soviet Union were created the SS-20 missile of medium range. There was no particular purpose or a particular task: they just designed and constructed theml. Brezhnev's personal adviser on the closed-door briefing at the embassy told us the story: airfield, Leonid Brezhnev is going to a trip abroad, members of the Politburo accompanied him. Suddenly Defense Minister Ustinov approaches Brezhnev and says, Lenia, we made missiles, not ballistic, so they will not reach the United States, but can reach Europe. We must do something with them; we spent the money, have adjusted production, and what to do - is unclear. Perhaps we should place them in the west parts of Ukraine and Belarus, shouldn’t we? ". Brezhnev, almost out of his mind, says: "Let’s do this, Dima, let’s do!". That's the whole discussion of strategic issues.
So, without any real reason the Soviet Union deployed SS-20 missiles, US gasped in shock and in response launched ballistic missiles in Europe "Pershing-2". Then we gasped in Moscow, and started struggle for peace. Putin can finish badly with his threats, and the United States will remember the "Pershings" or their modern versions. If you now place them, for example, in the Baltic States, the flight time will be reduced to four minutes. Given the fact that now missiles are hypersonic, they will fly to Moscow in 2-2.5 minutes. That's all the question of nuclear war.
– Will Putin decide to start a large-scale military offensive against the Ukraine?
– I don’t know all the important details, but I see two major things. Firstly, the concentration of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine is already prohibitive. They shouldn’t keep so many people doing nothing, they turn into a dangerous force for Russia.
On the other hand, it is very essential for the Russian Federation that the West dismiss all the sanctions and don’t imposed new ones. Recently, the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was moaning, reporting on the situation in the country. If Putin decides to attack, Russia's economy will not sustain the new sanctions. But we must take into account the words of the late Berezovsky: "It is difficult to predict the logic of idiots."
– Then explain to me the logic of the US president, who inhibits the transfer of lethal weapons to Ukraine.
– Well, it is easy to understand Obama: if US weapons are thrown away as well as the Ukrainian were during the retreat of the ATO forces from Debaltseve, there will be a scandal, and not senators will bear the responsibility, who stand for military assistance to Ukraine, but personally Barack Obama. This will cause a severe blow to the applicant for the US presidency from the Democratic Party. Obama should leave the presidency with dignity, otherwise his name would be disgraced.
Here is much more important question: "Whom should the US transfer a lethal weapon?". I don’t even mention volunteer battalions, but there is still no real army in Ukraine in the Western sense.
– Why not, if during the last year the army has just appeared for the first time in the history of independent Ukraine?
– The situation around Ilovaysk and Debaltseve has demonstrated that there is a gulf of mistrust and even hostility between the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, located on the battlefield, and the command. Command can deploy in certain areas the ATO forces, but as soon as hostilities begin - they immediately loses communication and management. Army becomes uncontrollable crowd. Certainly, among the personnel there are lots of heroes, but the main problem, because of which in Ukraine in a year (!) after the aggression there is still no army, is the gulf of mistrust, misunderstanding and even hostility between the personnel and command. And we should tblame for this uniquely high command.
– Unfortunately, I have nothing to argue ...
– I told you about the Soviet and Russian generals, and now let's talk about Ukrainian ones. There is a concept of "parquet General".
During the Euromaidan in Ukraine there were 43 Generals of the Army. There is no army is not, but there generals of non-existent army. Most of them got the stripes at a time when the armed forces of Ukraine were being deliberately despised and ruined. Presidents apparently believed that efficient army for them is more dangerous than potential external enemy. Ukrainian armed forces were not involved in any fighting, not even the military exercises were conducted. The last military exercises were held in 1997 at divisional level - this is ridiculous! Explain for what services these people have given general's stripes?
– For the illegal sale of weapons abroad...
– ... And for cuts for superiors! So, to look for commanders in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and General Staff – a hopeless task. They can not be there at all. Military operations in the Donbass once again confirms this.
– What do you suggest?
– In the mid-1990s in the African state of Sierra Leone the rebels appeared and seized a sizable chunk of territory, rich in diamonds. Government army could not do anything and invited the Vikings. 157 well-trained foreign military experts arrived, who during two weeks abolished 10000th army of rebels.
In 1960 huge Indonesia invaded small Malaysia. The last also realized that couldn’t cope with the monster, and invited Vikings: they came and abolished huge army of Indonesia. Both African and Malaysian leadership had the intelligence to understand that they should not fight to the last inhabitant of the country, and the need to hire military specialists.
– Are you implying that the Ukrainian leadership had not enough intelligence to do the same?
– Either tey had not enough intelligence, or no desire to end the war quickly and without huge losses.
– In May 2014, before the presidential election, you visited Ukraine. Why?
– I brought one of the best military experts in the West, There are perhaps no more than 10 men of this level of experts in the world. His name and biography says enough about him. He probably has more experience and knowledge than the total of the General Staff of Ukraine.
In May of the last year, the number of armed separatists operating in the Donbas, estimated at several hundreds. We came with a concrete plan, my partner was ready to finish all riot in eastern Ukraine within two months maximum. Our plan to eliminate separatists would cost in the export value of the two T-90 tanks.
– I haven’t been in Voentorg for a long time, I do not remember how much the tank cost. Can you tell me the cost of your project, please?
– About six million dollars, with half of that amount spent on the arms, on the very weapons that Ukraine long and unsuccessfully asks the West. We met a man from the Ukrainian leadership, who at that time could decide this issue.
– Can you give me the surname?
– Let’s not provide further discord. But, believe me, I'm talking about a fairly high level. Today in Ukraine this name is on everyone's lips, and in May 2014 this man could easily solve the problem of the separatists in the Donbass, but instead he defused the problem. Do you know what most surprised the Americans about Ukrainian officials? They do not say specificly "yes" or "no", but mumble something inarticulate.
I returned to the US, but continued efforts, managed to break into the ministerial level, the representatives of which were well received by the newly elected president of Ukraine. In response - again silence. This is despite the fact that the Ukrainian delegation touring the world, constantly asking weapons and receive denials. But when they come to Western experts, and offer thoughtful, plan designed to detail ... You know, the typical Ukrainian official do not solve the problem, he is working a job. And that's the tragedy of Ukraine.
In the late 1980s, there was an anecdote in the KGB, which very accurately describes the current Ukrainian bureaucracy. CIA agent was thrown to Moscow with the task to start a coup. He came to the country and began to like it, so he decided to give up. He came to the Lubyanka, saying, guys, I'm from the CIA, ready to confess everything. "Do you have the task ?" asks the KGB agent. The American nods. "Then you need the next room". He goes to the next room: "I'm from the CIA and I have the task." "Do you have a radio receiving station?". – "Yes." – "Then you need the next room." American was running the whole day long from office to office. Late in the evening he was completely exhausted, he comes at the last cabinet: "I came from the CIA, and I have the task, and I have a radio receiving station, and many other things." – "So go the hell out of here and do your task, do not bother me, I am busy with preparing for a May Day demonstration." The same thing is happening in Ukraine.
– May be not your presentation layer, nor the level of your specialist impressed the Ukrainian leadership?
– Is the level of commander of one of the best special forces of the world for you credibility? Does the commander of NATO special operations have enough authority? Maybe I should have walked up to the UN Secretary General so that Kyiv drew attention to it? My partner, as all major western people used to answer for the consequences. Especially as he has relevant experience of combat operations there. If he said that two months would be enough to solve the problem with the separatists in the Donbass, so it would be, and in August 2014 in eastern Ukraine would be all quiet, plus there would be a weapon and capable special forces.
– How do you explain the rejection of the Ukrainian leadership on your project neutralizing separatists?
– The system does not work, and it's scary! Ukraine has two enemies - Putin's Russia and the state of their own in the face of bureaucratic folk.
– After the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 Ukraine changed its management. Have you attempted to re-offer your project?
– Our project lies on the table of one of those officials who regularly on television tearing his shirt on his chest, saying, aggression, aggression ... We ask to give a definitive answer, but the official either left, then walked away, then fell,or something else. I have run out of words.
– Didn’t you try to address directly Petro Poroshenko?
– There is also a problem. You have a really great president, in the sense that if he was foreign minister you wouldn’t find better candidate. I saw Poroshenko performed in the US Congress. It is an outstanding example of the art of diplomacy. But there's Murphy's Law: every official or manager sooner or later reaches the limit of his competence.
I am very afraid that Poroshenko could reach this limit at the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. Because as president he has two very serious problems - the recruitment of personnel, especially the military, by the criterion of personal loyalty rather than professional competence, and lack of understanding that the fate of Ukraine in the first place is decided on the fronts, and not at the negotiating table, and Diplomatic efforts can not turn defeat on the battlefield to win at the negotiating table. Diplomacy can only capture more or less successfully what has already happened on the battlefield. It seems to me (while I would love to be wrong), Poroshenko poorly versed in military affairs, so he is not particularly engaged, entrusting the fate of the country to "parquet generals." This is a complete recipe for a terrible defeat.
– Don’t you think that too many people in Ukrainian politics are elementary not intersted to stop the war in the Donbass, so that they could blame the lack of systemic reforms, while leading a huge shadow business?
– This will end badly, there will be another Maidan and everything will collapse. I really do not understand the personnel policy of Poroshenko. Former Minister of Defense of Ukraine (Colonel-General Valery Geleta, led by the Ministry of Defence from 3 July to 14 October 2014. – "Gordon"). His assignment was a diversion against Ukraine.
Let me tell you the biography of this "commander". It turned out he graduated from the Ivano-Frankivsk specialized secondary school of police. I'm in shock! Too shy to ask, Mr. President of Ukraine, if – God forbid – you need a complicated heart surgery, would you allow the medical secondary school graduate to do it? In the Soviet Union people with such education would maximum become a policeman, but here with a country at war a Defense Minister...
I've seen a few Geletey speaches, he sparkled with whitened teeth and prophesied, saying, he learned to fight during the job. It was on the eve of Ilovaisky boiler. He had not even realized that his "training positions" cost the lives of hundreds, if not thousands of people. If a cop with a secondary education became Minister of Defense of Ukraine, probably, the chief of staff must be a graduate of a culinary college.
Despite the bleakness of the situation, there is great hope. I'm talking about the new generation of Ukrainians who went into politics for the past about 10 years. These are people with brains properly set, when there is a problem, they think and look for ways to solve it. And how the traditional Ukrainian official solves the problem? He primarily asses "What will be my profit?". And if there is no profit, he will not face it. And if the fate of the country is determined by such officials, that country will end up as Ukraine did after 25 years of gaining independence - without an army and without money. I think Ukraine should pass the biblical scenario: Moses 40 years led his people through the desert so that only free people would enter the Promised Land. Perhaps the country will have to wait for the representatives of the old bureaucratic mind die a natural death.
– Till the time the people of old political system leave the power in a natural way, Ukraine could disappear.
– It all depends on what will happen with your northern neighbor. Now the fate of Russia is largely dependent on the US president. By signing only two pieces of paper, without any nuclear attacks Obama could plunge Russia in the preceding infarction condition.
– Can you tell more on this issue?
– First: major oil monopolies have put pressure on Obama, demanding to lift restrictions on the export of US crude oil, he is still resisting, but there is hope. If Obama signs the paper, world oil prices will collapse.
Second: exports of liquefied natural gas. As of January 2015 Obama's desk was filled with about 100 applications for the export of liquefied natural gas from the United States; only five of them were satisfied. But here also a powerful lobby presses the president. It is expected that in seven or eight weeks, the first batch will go to Europe. If the restrictions are withdrawn on US exports of liquefied natural gas, the world price for it, will also collapse.
In both cases it is an end of the Kremlin. Do you know what the uniqueness of Russia is? Normal country with a good economy always normal. Russia becomes sane in foreign policy only when experiencing serious economic problems. Once there are extra money in Russia, the Kremlin goes nuts. Russia is homosexual country, in the sense that in the strategic plan it is all done through the ass. If the West does not remove sanctions in two years Russia will collapse.
In oil wells, which the Russian Federation is currently developing, according to various experts, the oil remained for about two years. New fields due to Western sanctions Russia can not develop. Thus, after two years the country will be without oil.
– Maybe the problem is not in Russia itself, but in its current political leadership?
– Sometimes I think that Putin is an agent behind the scenes, who got the job once and for all put an end to Russia. Rather than establish a normal relationship with the same Europe, the export of gas and oil in which the lion's share of the Russian budget, Putin launched a struggle with the West. Even at the height of the "cold war," the Kremlin elders never blackmailed Western countries with oil and gas supplies. Never! Since even an idiot understands that cut the branch on which you sit is counterproductive. And to cry that the situation in Ukraine is NATO's own fault, because it started to approach the Russian borders. It is Putin who revived NATO. Prior to Russia's aggression Alliance existed almost only on paper, but now came alive. Putin invaded Ukraine ostensibly to ensure that there has not entered NATO. But now NATO soldiers are already in the Baltic States, on the borders of the Russian Federation. "Dear Russians" should thank Putin now.
In the USSR in late 1980, two years before the August coup, we were transferred to the analytical work. We have gathered information from around the Union, we have tried to understand what was happening. Then I saw clear signs of imminent collapse of the state. The same signs I now see in Russia. Putin has done much to ensure that the next president of the United States became the new Reagan and to the policy of containment of Russia for a long time was the foreign policy of Washington. In the context of globalization to become a self-contained pariah means to turn Russia in third-rate state or even destroy it. But Putin is doing everything for this, because he believes that this is the only way for him to stay at the top to the grave.
– If Putin goes, the hostility of Russia towards Ukraine will stop?
– No. Unfortunately, this is the historical fate of Ukraine, no matter who came to power in the Kremlin. Russia has not learned the most important axioms: diapers and politicians need to be changed regularly. The country continues to go to the used diapers, and everybody who comes to the Kremlin tries to stay there forever, turning the country into a swamp. It is a national idea and tragedy that will destroy Russia. That is why the existence of an open, democratic and successful Ukraine for the Kremlin is as a bone in the throat.
Who will replace Putin? Again, the same people. For example, former director of the FSB, and now secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev. He, like Putin, worked in the Leningrad KGB, was a specialist in the organization of hunting and fishing for high authorities. Such a "ranger" was in almost every department of the KGBl. But if the head of the pride of lions is a sheep, the lions are easily transformed into a flock of sheep. No matter how many smart people there are in the Russian structures, if their head Vova Putin.