Illarionov: Massive offensive of the Russian army will begin after the Ukrainians are provoked into resumption of military actions
Former Deputy of the State Duma, Director of the Institute of Political Research, member of the Public Chamber of Russia Sergey Markov reported that the situation in Donbass will burst out in the following two days. This statement and the current political situation in the world, Russia and Ukraine has been commented by the Vladimir Putin’s former adviser and economist Andrey Illarionov in an exclusive interview for the GORDON edition.
The President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin hopes for a change in the sphere of political privileged interests in the world, Vladimir Putin’s former adviser Andrey Illarionov declared to the GORDON.
Putin offered Obama to conclude the Great Pact as Hitler offered Chamberlain and Stalin in August 1939
– Yesterday, Mr. Markov gave an interview to The Daily Beast declaring that the offensive of the Russian army may start within 48 hours. He outlined the directions of the attacks – Peski, Avdeevka, Schastie, Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk. They largely coincide with the directions specified by General Malomuzh a day before – Avdeevka (Donetsk), Debaltsevo, Peski, Mariupol, Novoazovsk. The fact of this almost simultaneous statements is worth noticing.
Both newsmakers underlined that the massive offensive of the Russian army will begin after the Ukrainians are provoked into resumption of military actions, which would allow the Kremlin to accuse Ukraine of violating the truce.
In the last three weeks, Putin offered Obama the so-called Grand Bargain – an offer to conclude the Great Pact that is similar to the offers made by Hitler to Chamberlain and Stalin in August 1939. As is well known, Stalin agreed on this deal that went down in history as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, while Chamberlain refused. A week later, German troops invaded Poland, and World War II broke out.
Some observers tried to guess the essence of Putin’s offers to Obama. The columnist of The New York Times Roger Cohen suggested that it may be an exchange of Ukraine for Iran. Alexander Lebedev together with Vladislav Inozemtsev in The Independent (Lebedev is the publisher of Novaya Gazeta and The Independent, Inozemtsev is a member of the Scientific Board and Panel of the Russian Council for International Affairs, – GORDON) suggested the West should recognize the Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the restoration of Ukrainian control over Eastern Donbass and withdrawal of charges of aggression against Russia. Markov recollected the offers of spring 2014: 1) territorial integrity of Ukraine as of early April 2014, 2) federalization of Ukraine, 3) granting Russian with the status of a state language.
Putin hopes that the West will recognize the Russian sphere of privileged interests – at least, all the territory of the former Soviet Union
It seems, however, that Putin’s strategic wishes are much more ambitious. He dedicated them a great part of his Valdai speech in Sochi on October 24. Their point is that the USA and the West in general should recognize the Russian sphere of privileged interests, which means renunciation of any measure of its protection by the West. Though the borders of this area have not been announced, apparently, it covers at least all the territory of the former Soviet Union.
Yesterday, Nazarbayev made an urgent and, strictly speaking, unprecedented public address. Nazarbayev spoke about his premonition of the approaching "global ordeals" that will "change the current world architecture", and "not all states will survive them". Nazarbayev directly stated that Kazakhstan is in "immediate proximity to the epicentre of geopolitical tension". This statement is true for Ukraine.
Ukraine has to hold out and win in this difficult situation
Putin was going to discuss his offers concerning the change of world order with Obama in China at APEC summit and in Australia at G20 summit (G20 summit in Australian Brisbane to be held on November 15-16, – GORDON). Based on the first contacts in Beijing, it did not work out so far. Putin will insist on arranging the deal in Australia.
If it is not concluded, Putin will have no other way, but to blackmail the rest of the world raising the price of "refusal of Putin’s offer that cannot be refused." The first line of this blackmail is resumption of Russian military offensive against Ukraine.
The nature of the immediate military actions in the territory of Ukraine is hard to predict, but, most likely, it will depend on how Putin assesses the chances for conclusion of the deal.
Regardless of the Kremlin’s plans, Ukraine has to hold out and win in this difficult situation.