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Malomuzh: Russia used an opportunity for destabilization to break the summit in Astana and whole peace process in general

The former head of service of foreign intelligence of Ukraine, the general Nikolay Malomuzh considers that activization of attacks of the Ukrainian part in the ATO zone together with diversions and social discontent have to become the destabilizing factor on which Russia counts.

Malomuzh thinks that Russia counts on a social factor that has to become the destabilizing element.
Malomuzh thinks that Russia counts on a social factor that has to become the destabilizing element.
Photo: uacrisis.org

The ex-head of service of foreign intelligence Nikolay Malomuzh considers that activization of fighters on Donbass happened because real process of peaceful settlement started which did not enter into interests of one of the parties of the conflict. He declared it in the comment to GORDON .

"On Donbass the peace process started, both on tactical, and at the strategic levels. It was expected that it would pass in a Norman format when Putin is not able to manipulate a situation. Formats with participation of the countries of the European Union and the USA are top-level direct contacts which compel to act more accurately and not to manipulate those arrangements which were in Minsk. It was necessary to involve powerful factors for destabilization in this situation for Russia, having broken this strategic process. Not only the summit in Astana, but in general the process of the movement to the peace at the strategic level. Consequently, factors which completely would block such movement" are necessary,– Malomuzh declared.

"In the Russian plans it was expected that after New Year, operations for expansion of zones of control by fighters of "DNR" and "LNR" on strategic points will be performed. It is both Donetsk airport, and Debaltsevo, both Avdeevka, and Peski, both Volnovakha, and Mariupol. It was already noted that on these objects more active military operations would begin. And they began. Together with other factors – diversionary acts and acts of terrorism, and also a social component – it will be the direction of destabilization within the country",– the general noted.

According to Nikolay Malomuzh, social factor has to become the destabilizing element on which Russia counts.

"In view of mobilization and social problems, we should expect the social movement in our state. All this will be imposed on military operations, on acts of terrorism, on diversions, on performances of citizens and will lead to the general destabilization. This is it – the big plan to which Russia moved from frontal attacks",– Malomuzh noted.

"If a big political process at the level of the world states of the seven, the USA and Russia already began, these processes would be extremely difficult to be stimulated. On the other hand, it is clear that our Armed forces have bigger power, than a year ago, and are more ready to counteract militants actively. Such activity gives the grounds to the Russian side to declare that it is us who break a truce, but not the militants",– the general declared.

According to the expert, fighters will use a situation aggravation to accuse the Ukrainian military of violation of a ceasefire regime and arrangements with fighters.

"For example, on the Donetsk airport we agreed about rotation, we already shook hands, presented gifts, and then an uncontrollable process sharply started, and rotation in a detour of representatives of "DNR" began. It is a formal reason for them to declare that we violated these arrangements at the level of fighting structures on places. Different factors are used for destabilization, but anyway they strategically planned to break political the peace process, to strengthen the positions for destabilization of a situation in the region and to expand a conflict zone in Ukraine taking into account discontent of the population with different factors – social, political and mobilization",– Malomuzh noted.

"They decided that they need control over the territory approximately on 30–40 km deep in from the existing line of the section. And it is the main strategic objects or the cities, communication centers, the railroad, the main roads around the 29th and 31st checkpoints. These objects are defined as strategic for occupation long time ago, therefore the first blow will be launched just on them. During the activization of firefights the task is set to capture them in order to control a situation, or perhaps to conduct an attack for expansion of borders within Donetsk and Lugansk areas of Ukraine",– the general declared.

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