+1 Kyiv
The political scientist Taras Chornovil considers that intensification of military operations in the east of Ukraine is explained by the fact that the Russian President Vladimir Putin needs at least some military achievements to strengthen his positions during negotiations. Chornovil stated this in his comment to the GORDON .
"While several months ago it was said that Russian reserves will be enough for 2 to 3 years, experts say now that the reserves will last just for 2 to 3 months. That is why Putin is acting flaky now. He needs to achieve at least some results, he needs to seize something, get settled and show some advantages in order to conduct negotiations in one way or another," Chornovil pointed out.
"If we get involved in direct war now, it will mean repetition of the Battle of Ilovaisk, but all across the conflict territory. Considerable forces are concentrated near the Ukrainian border, and Putin is looking for open war; however, he is not ready to fight against the whole world because Russia is much weaker than one might have thought, in particular, in terms of the military. Under the circumstances, we must grit the teeth and hold out," the expert considers.
"We may discuss how long we can fire back, but taking the offensive and getting involved in a full-fledged war means tens of thousands of victims. We must understand the way Russia fights, look at the Caucasus – it is burnt land, burnt cities, total destruction of everything. It is destruction of the whole infrastructure of the country, not just of Donbass. Under the circumstances, we cannot win in the right understanding of this word," Taras Chornovil noted.
In his opinion, the best strategy for Ukraine would be resistance at the front line and involvement in the negotiation process.
"We must get Russia involved in the negotiation process while fighting back; then we must hold on for several months after which, I believe, Russia will not able to impose its conditions," Chornovil pointed out.
"These territories as such are of no value for Russia. The seized airport would be a blow at our morale but it is of no strategic or tactical importance. While Russia is capable of something, it needs war, but such a war that can be justified or attributed to someone. In this case, the last sanctions will not be imposed. The need us to start war," the expert considers.
According to Chornovil, the Russian army tried to provoke the Armed Forces of Ukraine to into an operation in Donetsk, which would become a trap for the Ukrainian military"I have such an impression that the aim was not to seize the Donetsk airport itself but rather to bring the Ukrainian troops to Donetsk. As far as I know, the Head of the General Staff Muzhenko came to the Donetsk airport to prevent our troops from yielding to this provocation. If they had yielded to it, it would be the most terrible battle, and Ilovaisk would seem children’s fun as compared with it. A large-scale continental attack would start that would result in colossal loss of territories and, probably, a new truce, but without Donetsk and Lugansk regions, perhaps, without Kharkiv and the south of Ukraine. They would have great casualty toll, but it would be incomparable to the casualties we might suffer. They were ready to use aviation and missiles then," Chornovil pointed out.
