Ukraine will hardly face national default, but if we talk about corporate default, this serious hazard really exists. Such opinion was expressed by the economist, executive director of the Blazer International Fund Oleg Ustenko in his comment to “Gordon” .
"We will have to make some considerable payments during the year, but I would not talk about default. In this case we need to look at several factors, including risk insurance rates. They have considerably mounted for Ukraine and now make over 23%. At the same time, if Ukraine now enters foreign markets of capital loans, we will have to pay more than 25% annually", the expert noted.
According to him, it is quite a lot, especially considering $3 billion debt which the Russian Federation can demand, but it will not lead to default.
"We will have to make some considerable payments during the year. If we talk about absolutely short period, during January and February the payments will make around $1 billion, and the serious risk factor is the payment of $3 billion to Russia. If we look at the volume of our gold and foreign currency reserves, now they are at the level of about $7,5 billion. And payments that need to be made are aound $1 billion, plus, perhaps, $3 billion to Russia. It is definitely a lot and can seriously affect our financial stability, but I would hardly talk about default", Ustenko summerized.
At the same time, according to the economist, Ukraine is facing a threat of a corporate default.
"A different question is if we speak about a corporate, not a national default. In this case the situation is far more complicated. A problem is that the private sector has the debt of more than $100 billion in hand, and a part of this debt is subject to payment this year. They will have to pay at least $12 billion in 2015. Such payments on the part of the private sector mean that it, first of all, needs to have hryvnia to buy currency in the market, and secondly, someone needs to sell this currency to it", – the economist noted.