The Russian historian Mark Solonin believes that sanctions have struck a serious blow at Russia because the Russian Federation did not have a strong independent economy from the very beginning. He said it in the comment to the GORDON .
"The U.S. president is absolutely right. The blow that has been struck at the Russian economy is relatively weak, but it turned out bubble economy. It was enough to prick it with a tiny needle for the bubble to burst," Solonin said.
"I live in the provincial town of Samara, former Kuibyshev. This city was founded in order to provide manpower for a huge industrial complex – two giant aircraft factories, aircraft engine factory, two bearing factory, two rocket plants, ammunition plant, two tank factory. Kuibyshev with a population of one million people emerged for all this to work," the historian said.
According to Mark Solonin’s observations, Russia’s prosperity rested on the embezzlement of money earned from oil extraction and resale of goods from China, which led to such a sharp recession after the drop in oil prices and imposition of sanctions.
"Most of the companies were simply torn down with bulldozers, and shopping malls are in their places now. What do one million people do? They consume oil rents and receive money from the growth of oil prices in the 2000s. However, they do it in a perverted manner. After all, they are not distributed oil dollars in packages every month. They go to China, buy huge amounts of Chinese mass-produced goods, sell them to others, and the latter sell them to citizens in the stalls. And the whole city is swarming with countless shopping malls where people sell oil money in the form of Chinese goods. A slight prick is enough for such economy to collapse," Solonin considers.
"The rouble has fallen twice against the dollar, and it is clear that this fall is not over yet. It means that the purchasing power of the population and the ability to buy Chinese goods is reducing. It means in its turn that the number of shopping malls selling Chinese mass-produced goods is also decreasing. Thus, half of people can become unemployed. It is like the domino effect – it is enough to push one tile, and the whole chain starts falling," Solonin believes.
According to Solonin, Russia has neither industry nor manpower who could work in this industry.
"Reduction of revenues from oil dollars will cause a collapse. And there is nothing else – the plants have been brought down. And what is even more tragic and disastrous for the Russian economy is that there are no people who could work at these factories. If a magician comes and waves a magic wand and all the plants reappear, who will work there? Those who once worked there have grown old or passed away. The new generation is used to earning easy money. It is not able, not willing and psychologically unprepared to work at the plants. Thus, relatively weak, tiny, half-symbolic sanctions plus a slight fall in oil prices were enough for all this cardboard house to fall to the ground," the historian noted.
"It is not fully collapsed so far – the process has just begun, but I think that 2015 will be enough for everything to collapse. All that must happen will happen, but it will happen later than it can be expected. It is the law of life. The collapse is a complex process, and one link must pull others. It will not happen in 2-3 months and, my dear comrades and brothers, you will have to hold on until at least the end of 2015," Mark Solonin believes.
"We shall never ever ever ever surrender," Churchill appealed to his fellow citizens. It means that you will hold out, too!" Solonin added referring to the Ukrainians.